Summer Sports Activities to Disappear Across Most of Japan by 2060s, Study Shows

TOKYO — According to a report from a local research group, during the period between the 2060s and 2080s, summer temperatures in three-quarters of Japanese regions will reach such extremes that strenuous physical activities like those involved in school club events might have to be called off.

Although the National High School Baseball Championship, widely referred to as "Koshien" and taking place every year at the peak of summer, has implemented a split scheduling system to dodge the most scorching hours of the day, measures against heat for other outdoor sports besides baseball may soon come under scrutiny too.

The focus of the collaborative study between the National Institute for Environmental Studies and Waseda University in Tokyo is on understanding how climate change might impact outdoor sporting events. This investigation utilizes the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), an indicator used to issue warnings about heat-related illnesses; however, this metric has never before been forecasted extensively over extended periods or broken down by specific times of the day. To conduct their analysis, the researchers examined information gathered from 842 sites throughout Japan during the last twelve years, taking into account various elements such as hourly WBGT levels, temperatures, moisture content, wind velocity, and more.

By integrating these data points, the team developed a highly accurate predictive model capable of forecasting within specific time frames, like between 3 and 6 p.m., which is typically when school sports activities occur frequently.

In addition, they split the nation into eight zones according to historical mean WBGT data and developed multiple projections for the future. These included a situation wherein reliance on fossil fuels persists as well as an alternative where greenhouse gas emissions decline substantially. For every projection, they forecasted the temperatures reached during club event times for at least one day per week.

By the 2060s to 2080s, assuming continued reliance on fossil fuels, six out of eight regions could see conditions where strenuous physical activities must be halted during school club times, with four potentially needing to halt all outdoor activities entirely. Even in scenarios with substantial emission reductions, five areas might still have to impose limitations on vigorous exercises.

The team investigated the effects of shifting club activities to earlier in the day, from 7-9 a.m., as well as relocating them indoors. However, even with these measures in place, up to four areas might still require limitations on strenuous exercises.

The research team commented, “Should climate change continue, maintaining current club operations will prove challenging; merely implementing early morning sessions or cutting down on outdoor practice won’t suffice. It will also be essential to make significant alterations like modifying the yearly calendar for competitions and routine trainings along with establishing more indoor training spaces.”

Takahiro Oyama, who researches biometeorology at the institute’s Center for Climate Change Adaptation, shared his thoughts on the future of the Koshien championship: “Discussions have proposed holding events in dome stadiums, and from my perspective as a researcher, this seems like a positive step. Should it remain an outdoor event, another option could involve shifting the tournament to fall.”

(Japanese original by Buntaro Saito from the Tokyo City News Department)